International Smartphone Shipments Anticipated to Decline 3.5% in 2022, Amidst International Uncertainty and Weaker Demand, In response to IDC
NEEDHAM, Mass., June 1, 2022 – In response to a brand new Worldwide Information Company (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Cell Cellphone Tracker forecast, shipments of smartphones will decline 3.5% to 1.31 billion models in 2022. After three consecutive quarters of decline and rising challenges in each provide and demand, IDC has considerably decreased its forecast for 2022 from the earlier projection of 1.6% progress. Nonetheless, IDC expects this to be a brief time period set again because the market rebounds to realize a five-year compound annual progress fee (CAGR) of 1.9% via 2026.
“The smartphone business is going through rising headwinds from many fronts – weakening demand, inflation, continued geo-political tensions, and ongoing provide chain constraints. Nonetheless, the impression of the China lockdowns – which don’t have any clear finish in sight – are far larger,” mentioned Nabila Popal, analysis director with IDC’s Worldwide Mobility and Client System Trackers. “The lockdowns hit international demand and provide concurrently by lowering demand within the largest market globally and tightening the bottleneck to an already challenged provide chain. Consequently, many OEMs reduce orders for this yr, together with Apple and Samsung. Nonetheless, Apple seems to be the least impacted vendor as a consequence of larger management over its provide chain and since the vast majority of its clients within the high-priced phase are much less influenced by macroeconomic points like inflation. Barring any new setbacks, we count on these challenges to ease by the tip of this yr and the market to recuperate in 2023 with 5% progress.”
“The continued semiconductor provide points will ease up within the second half of 2022. On the SoC aspect, 4G SoC provide has been tight, however the market continues to shift in direction of 5G SoCs,” mentioned Phil Solis, analysis director in IDC’s Enabling Applied sciences and Semiconductors group. “The larger drawback has been the tight provide of parts reminiscent of PMICs, show drivers, and discrete Wi-Fi chips. Capability is being elevated for these semiconductors which might be made in larger course of nodes and newer variations of Wi-Fi chips are being made with newer course of nodes. On the identical time, demand is dropping. Mixed, these provide and demand modifications will put the market extra in equilibrium.”
From a regional view, the most important decline in 2022 is predicted in Central and Jap Europe (CEE) with shipments down 22%. China is forecast to say no 11.5% or roughly 38 million models, which is about 80% of the worldwide discount in cargo quantity this yr. Western Europe is predicted to say no 1% whereas most different areas will see constructive progress this yr, together with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) (APeJC) with 3% progress, the second largest area after China.
5G gadgets are anticipated to develop 25.5% yr over yr in 2022 and account for 53% of latest shipments with almost 700 million gadgets and a median promoting worth (ASP) of $608. Quantity expectations for this yr have been introduced down considerably as a consequence of elevated channel stock of 5G merchandise in China and the general discount available in the market forecast. In the long run, 5G is predicted to succeed in a quantity share of 78% in 2026 with an ASP of $440. In distinction, the 4G ASP is predicted to be $170 in 2022, dropping to $113 by the tip of the forecast interval. There was a slight improve within the ASPs within the brief time period throughout all gadgets as a consequence of shortages and the rising prices of parts and logistics. Nonetheless, the development will stay downwards over the long run. Smartphone ASP will decline from $402 in 2022 to succeed in $366 in 2026.
About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker merchandise present correct and well timed market measurement, vendor share, and forecasts for a whole lot of know-how markets from greater than 100 nations across the globe. Utilizing proprietary instruments and analysis processes, IDC’s Trackers are up to date on a semiannual, quarterly, and month-to-month foundation. Tracker outcomes are delivered to shoppers in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line question instruments.
For extra details about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Cell Cellphone Tracker, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or [email protected].
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About IDC
Worldwide Information Company (IDC) is the premier international supplier of market intelligence, advisory providers, and occasions for the knowledge know-how, telecommunications, and client know-how markets. With greater than 1,200 analysts worldwide, IDC affords international, regional, and native experience on know-how, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and business alternatives and traits in over 110 nations. IDC’s evaluation and perception helps IT professionals, enterprise executives, and the funding group to make fact-based know-how choices and to realize their key enterprise aims. Based in 1964, IDC is an entirely owned subsidiary of Worldwide Information Group (IDG), the world’s main tech media, knowledge, and advertising and marketing providers firm. To study extra about IDC, please go to www.idc.com. Observe IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Weblog for business information and insights.
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